Roberts: Rethink Regulators
By Brian Friel
Alasdair Roberts
Law and public policy professor at Suffolk University Law School
Alasdair Roberts, law and public policy professor at Suffolk University Law School, has written a new book that challenges the way policymakers think about government design in a globalized economy. In the book The Logic of Discipline (Oxford University Press, 2010), Roberts argues that the United States and other governments have become overly reliant on technocrats out of a fear of politicized decisionmaking, without thinking through the limits of independent institutions like the Federal Reserve. In an April 30 interview with National Journal, Roberts explored the question of redesigning financial regulation as the Senate begins debate on regulatory reform.
NJ: What is the logic of discipline?
Roberts: In the book, I'm talking about a way of thinking about the organization of government that was orthodoxy before 2007. It was an accepted view about the best way to organize government to succeed in a globalized economy. It put heavy emphasis on the need to impose discipline on democratic processes because politicians and voters couldn't be trusted to make the right decisions. And it also had this idea that the way in which you impose discipline is by legislative and constitutional change to restrict the choices people can make for themselves. That's the basic way of thinking about government that I argue was dominant before 2007.The [financial] crisis emphasized a couple of points. The first is the dangers of relying excessively on technocrats to exercise judgment, because it turns out that technocrats are fallible too. The second is the naivete of the notion that you can somehow craft laws that are going to constrain political processes from doing ill-advised things. Because when the crisis hit, we just blew through the constraints.
NJ: Describe some of the technocrats who were the players in this.
Roberts: Probably the best example of a misplaced faith in technocrats has to do with our faith in central bankers. The generally accepted proposition before 2007 was that you needed to have a central bank that was well buffered from political influence because only technocrats were sufficiently neutral and sufficiently skilled to make the hard decisions about monetary policy. After 2007, of course, we've become much more skeptical about that notion. We've begun to realize that technocrats themselves can be subject to groupthink. They can develop blinders that cause them not to see looming threats or cause them to fail to develop the policies that allow them to avert looming threats.
NJ: The Senate is debating a financial reform bill. Do you think policymakers are repeating the mistakes of the past in terms of governmental design?
Roberts: There's still an underlying faith in the capacity of regulatory bodies to exercise judgment on the public interest. There are two ways to think about the problem of financial sector regulation. The first is to say we're going to set up monitors, we're going to set up regulatory agencies, that have the capacity to police and avoid another crisis. The second way is to say we're going to restructure the industry so the need for policing is reduced. The emphasis has been more on the notion that somehow we can redesign regulators and regulation to avoid crisis rather than making the harder call, which is how can we restructure the sector to avoid a recurrence of crisis.
NJ: In the book, you talk about a popular backlash that sometimes accompanies an overreliance on technocrats. Do you see that backlash happening right now?
Roberts: Yes. One of the premises of the book is you had here this formula for redesigning government that was put forward heavily by economists. I'm citing throughout the book a way in which economists were getting into the business of thinking about institutional design, governmental design -- and so making an argument, for example, for an independent central bank, making the argument for independent regulation, making the argument for fiscal rules. Part of the difficulty with the way they thought about government was that they had this really impoverished view of politics. They really didn't understand the way in which political dynamics shape government. One of the ways in which that is true is they just didn't see or appreciate the intensity of the political reaction to the concentration of power in actors who are buffered from political control.When times are good you don't necessarily see that, but when times are bad that question of accountability and legitimacy really comes to the fore. When the crisis hits and the Federal Reserve starts taking aggressive action, big questions of accountability and legitimacy start coming up. People on both sides of the political aisle are asking, who is the central bank accountable to? Where do they get the authority to take the broad-ranging actions they are taking?
NJ: How could legislation be written to provide a popular check on the Fed?
Roberts: There are marginal changes and then there are radical changes. The marginal changes are the changes that would increase requirements for transparency, increase requirements for auditing of certain functions. The more radical proposals, which are not on the table, would be proposals that actually challenged the independence of the Fed itself, for example through changing the way in which the chairman and members of the Federal Reserve board are actually appointed. No one's proposing that at the moment, but in other countries, the notion of reversing course and making central banks less independent is not a radical notion; it's something that's very much on the table.
NJ: As the economy improves, do you think the populist backlash will decline and the Fed will maintain a strong level of independence?
Roberts: I think that the golden era for the independent central bank which began in the late '80s and ran up until 2007 is gone. Although in the United States the independence of the central bank won't be fundamentally challenged, it will be subjected to a much higher degree of scrutiny for a long time. You might not see overt, powerful challenges to its autonomy, but the willingness of other actors in Congress and outside of government to second-guess its judgment or to subject it to increased scrutiny, that's more likely to happen for quite a few years.
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