
By Will Englund
National Journal recently interviewed Heather Conley, who worked in the State Department during George W. Bush's first term and now is director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Edited excerpt follows.
NJ: There's been an awful lot of chatter about President Obama and Europe. What do you make of it all?
Conley: We are in a period of managing expectations and disappointment, quite frankly. The enthusiasm and expectations that Europe had for the president himself and what he was going to do to change everything in a positive direction, to our European friends' view, they've been disappointed. But to be fair, I don't know if anybody could live up to their oversized expectations.And on the other hand Washington had some unrealistic expectations of what Europe could and could not do, be that in Afghanistan or Guantanamo. Both sides are feeling frustrated: This was supposed to be the best of times, and while they're still trying to smile their way through it, it's a fairly strange smile. Everyone feels this problem. I'm not sure we're very good at articulating what's underlying the problem, but it's growing into a fairly significant problem. And it shouldn't be.
NJ: So you think it's going in the wrong direction?
Conley: I do. I do. Both sides are at fault. The president's popularity does not necessarily translate into policy. Style and fantastic visionary speeches don't necessarily translate into substance.
NJ: Aren't both sides following their own logical interests?
Conley: We're in this sort of ad hoc moment which I think has Europe feeling very off-balance. The G-20 [as opposed to the G-8] is not a table that they feel comfortable at. Although they're still very well represented, it doesn't feel right. The Copenhagen climate change conversation really, really reinforced that we seem to be willing to move away from established organizational structures and we're willing to make this up on the fly if it suits our needs. And that hasn't been codified for Europe in a way that they can grasp....They're waiting for the Americans to lead and when it's not there, they really turn inward. We're heading into a rough patch in the next few months. Europe's a wee bit rudderless at the moment, and America is distracted.
NJ: What do you expect?
Conley: You just feel like there's no one who has both hands on the wheel. We have very smart and knowledgeable people who are in charge of the European portfolio. I've really been perplexed at why this has been so difficult. It seems to me the administration is having a problem in sequencing things and doing things a little more strategically. They're trying to address the headlines but not understanding the sequencing, the strategic implications of, if you do this, then this will have this implication. They're missing an opportunity to look deep and long. We don't want crisis management. We want to build a winning cooperative strategy.
NJ: Europe welcomed the Obama administration's renewed interest in Bosnia last year but now it's chafing at the American role there.
Conley: It's a perfect example of can't-live-with-it, can't-live-without-it. Europe is not ready to take a leadership mantra yet. They require American guidance and leadership and that's why it's so critical that we are presenting a vision. They may hate it, they may say this is wrong for the following 20 reasons. But it's something they can coalesce around. You have to have American leadership. It's a fact.
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Gracefully,
Lisa Caponigri
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